After careful calculation, the author has been engaged in chemical futures analysis for more than three years. In the new year, the first task is to predict the possible changes in the chemical futures market in 2016. There is a subconscious in the author's mind, that is, LLDPE is stronger than PTA in chemicals. When doing chemical arbitrage, a combination of multiple LLDPE and empty PTA is generally selected. In fact, this subconsciousness has a certain theoretical basis.
First, the domestic LLDPE production capacity is insufficient and needs to be imported in large quantities. Statistics since 2003 show that the average domestic PE import dependence is 45.76%, and 42.64% in the first 11 months of 2015. The structural shortage of supply supports the firmness of LLDPE prices.
Second, domestic LLDPE production is relatively monopolized, production capacity is mainly concentrated in the hands of PetroChina and Sinopec, while downstream production capacity is relatively scattered. This industrial chain structure enables LLDPE companies to have strong pricing power. Once prices fall, LLDPE companies can limit production and insure prices. . On the other hand, in the PTA industry, due to the overheating of investment in the previous years, the production capacity of PTA has increased sharply. Affected by the decline in economic growth, the demand for PTA terminal clothing is weak, which is transmitted to the downstream, and the growth rate of polyester demand slows down accordingly, and the problem of excess supply in the PTA industry is becoming more and more obvious. In addition, the capacity concentration of PTA enterprises is lower than that of LLDPE. In such a market, the limited production and price protection of PTA companies did not support prices for a long time.
However, looking forward to 2016, this pattern of strong LLDPE and weak PTA may be broken. At the end of 2015, the total domestic PE production capacity was roughly 15.39 million tons. In 2016, it is estimated that 1.99 million tons of new production capacity will be put into operation, and the production capacity growth rate will reach 12.93%. At the end of 2015, the total domestic PP production capacity is roughly 17.393 million tons. The plan for 2016 The production capacity put into production was 3.61 million tons, and the production capacity growth rate was 20.76%. In terms of PTA, only 2.2 million tons of Jiangyin Hanbang and 1 million tons of Sichuan Shengda are planned to be put into operation in 2016. Compared with the production capacity of 50.15 million tons, the growth rate is only 6.82%.
In order to alleviate the dependence on polyolefin imports, China has been vigorously developing coal-to-olefin technology. In 2015, a large-scale domestic coal-to-olefins plant was put into operation, but the sharp drop in crude oil prices hit the coal-to-olefins industry and eased its impact on the polyolefin market. However, the large-scale commissioning of coal-to-olefins units is irreversible, and this technological revolution will break the supply pattern of the domestic olefins industry and re-price LLDPE and PP. Since some coal-to-olefin processes will produce PE and PP at the same time, and the proportion of PP is higher than that of PE, the growth rate of PP production capacity will be higher than that of PE. In addition, after the rapid expansion of production capacity and price drop, the growth rate of PTA production capacity has gradually slowed down, and the bankruptcy of Far East Petrochemical indicates that the survival of the fittest in the PTA industry has begun.
Therefore, the author believes that 2016 will be a year for chemical futures to change from strength to weakness. In the past, the "weak" PTA will put on a show of "the prince and general Xiangning have kindness", while the PE of "Wang Xietangqian" will be " Flying into the homes of ordinary people", PP may replace PTA and become synonymous with bearish varieties.
